Weekly Power Shift Synthesis

Every Sunday compilation — who gained and lost power across all 10 layers this week.


Format

What's Inside Each Weekly Report

The weekly synthesis consolidates five days of daily signals into a unified power structure view, ranked by impact and verified against our active scenarios.

Top 5 Events by Power Impact

Not ranked by headline size or market reaction — by structural power redistribution. Who gained leverage, who lost optionality, which dependencies got locked in.

Power Shift Map Across All Layers

Comprehensive layer-by-layer snapshot. Which layers were active this week. Which feedback loops activated. Cross-layer connections others miss.

Feedback Loop Activation Summary

Track which of the 6 cross-layer loops fired this week. Loop 1 (compute→models)? Loop 4 (middleware→models)? Loop 6 (energy→training)? What amplified or dampened the shifts.

3-Scenario Probability Updates

How did this week's events shift our base scenarios? Updated probabilities with specific evidence. Verified against checkpoint criteria. Which scenario is becoming more likely — and why.


Methodology

How Scenarios Work

We don't just predict — we verify. Every scenario has checkpoints with specific dates and criteria. You see our track record, not opinions.

Scenario Modeling

Each scenario maps a plausible 6-month structural path. Three concurrent scenarios are tracked weekly, with probability weights updated in real time as evidence arrives.

Updated every Sunday based on power shift signals from the week.
Checkpoint Verification

Every scenario has 2+ checkpoints with binary (Yes/No) criteria and exact dates. When checkpoints fire, we publish HIT/PARTIAL/MISS verdicts.

Next verification round: June 30, 2026 (Scenarios A & B checkpoints).
Public Track Record

Cumulative hit rate published monthly. Quarterly accuracy reports. No hidden adjustments, no post-hoc narratives.

Credibility built through transparency, not prediction perfection.

Current

Latest Issue
Week 12 · 2026-03-16 ~ 2026-03-22
Published every Sunday at 08:00 KST
This week's synthesis: L9 Safety becomes the primary power determinant — the Anthropic-Pentagon standoff crystallizes a structural paradox where stronger safety principles correlate with smaller government market share (L9→L2). Trump's federal AI legislative framework preempts state regulation, accelerating federal AI governance centralization (L8+L9). NVIDIA GTC 2026 confirms full-stack L1→L3 vertical integration (L1). Physical AI crosses industrial ROI threshold in healthcare and manufacturing (L6). Loop 1 (L9→L3) activated: safety conflict forces national defense AI middleware restructuring away from Anthropic. Scenario A (Regulatory Convergence) rises to 58% on federal preemption checkpoint evidence.

Past Issues

Weekly Archive

All published syntheses are available in the free archive. Each week captures structural shifts and scenario updates for pattern analysis across time.

W12 · 2026-03-16
L3 Hot · Loop 4 Active · Scenario A +62%
W11 · 2026-03-09
L1 Compute Pressure · Scenario B Revision
W10 · 2026-03-02
L2 Model War Escalates · Capital Flows
W09 · 2026-02-23
L8 Geopolitics Shift · Bloc Formation

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